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Search resuls for: "FedWatch"


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Once the Fed is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Down (-0.24%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.24%, 24 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall Slightly (-0.06%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.36%, six basis points lower than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Investors, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
Gold set for second weekly fall; U.S. payrolls on investors' radar
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices were poised for a second straight weekly decline, although bullion held steady on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could provide cues on the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline. Spot gold held its ground at $2,306.84 per ounce by 0457 GMT but lost more than 1% this week. Softer U.S. payrolls print could provide support for gold but a better report may weigh on prices, Wong added. The non-farm payrolls report is due at 1230 GMT.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Wong, Wang Tao, Fawad Organizations: Co, U.S ., Fed, City Index Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Egypt, Israel
Investors with cash on the sidelines may want to start moving some of that money into bonds, according to a new report from BlackRock. The bond market has seen some volatility amid the uncertainty around interest rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Bond yields move inversely to prices. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yields Yields are at levels not seen in 20 years, he pointed out. Aggregate Bond ETF year to date The iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB) is also a passively managed, broad bond market fund which adds exposure to potentially higher-yielding names.
Persons: Steve Laipply, shouldn't, Laipply Organizations: Federal, Treasury, BlackRock, Fed, Core, Aggregate Bond, Bloomberg U.S, SEC, Aggregate, Bond Locations: BlackRock
The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before. That’s because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut. “We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” he said.
Persons: Dow, , , Matt Peron, Janus Henderson, They’re, Jerome Powell, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, , Treasury, Apple Locations: New York
The Fed and economic policy were top of mind this week given the central bank's Wednesday decision to yet again leave interest rates unchanged , as it has since last summer. This week included the conclusion of April's trading month, which marked the first down month of the year for all three major market averages. Indeed, some recent earnings reports have raised doubts about the economy, with brands from McDonald's and Starbucks evidencing signs of strain among consumers. While no new inflation numbers are scheduled for release next week, investors will see reports on March wholesale inventories, March consumer credit and May consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. AI trade Though interest rates took center stage this week, investors also continued monitoring companies tied to the artificial intelligence boom amid the stocks' recent choppiness.
Persons: they're, Jerome Powell, Larry Tentarelli, David Donabedian, Sam Stovall, There's, Stovall, Tom Hainlin, Tentarelli, CFRA's Stovall, Lyft, Cabot, Aramark, Tempur Sealy, Nikola, Walt Disney, Sally Beauty, Warby Parker, Krispy Kreme, Papa John's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CIBC Private Wealth, Dow, CFRA, Citigroup, Bank of America, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, University of Michigan, Nvidia, Disney, Spirit Airlines, Tyson Foods, Pharmaceuticals, Lucid, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property, Tech, Lab, Goodyear Tire, Noble Corp, Vornado Realty, Coty, BellRing, Consumer, UBS, BP, Nintendo, Bloomin, Duke Energy, Rockwell Automation, Ferrari, NRG Energy, Electronic Arts, Cirrus, Adaptive Biotech, Arista Networks, Dutch Bros, Holdings, Virgin Galactic, IAC, Rivian Automotive, Brighthouse, Occidental Petroleum, Assurant, Kinross Gold, Labs, Diamond, Reddit, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Embraer, Health, United Parks & Resorts, Emerson Electric, Brookfield , New York Times, Food, Reynolds Consumer Products, Teva Pharma, Uber Technologies, Dine Brands, Liberty Broadband, Fox Corp, Cushman &, Liberty Media, Arm Holdings, Kodiak Gas Services, Solaredge Technologies, AMC Entertainment, Cheesecake, News Corp, Toyota Motors, Fair, US Foods, Hyatt Hotels, Warner Bros, Hilton, Warner Music Group, Unity Software, Insurance, Gen, Honda, AMC Networks Locations: Central, McDonald's, Expeditors, Occidental, Angi, Brookfield , New, Ambev, Cushman & Wakefield, Michigan
Sell in May and go away? Think again
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s “sell in May and go away” season. All three major indexes broke five-month winning streaks as hotter-than-expected inflation data stoked fears that interest rate cuts will come later than forecast. The central bank kept interest rates on hold at a 23-year high at its policy meeting. Persistent inflation has kept long-anticipated rate cuts on the backburner. Tesla “has let our entire charging org go,” William Navarro Jameson, strategic charging programs lead at Tesla, wrote on X.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, , Alex McGrath, Larry Tentarelli, Bryan Mena, it’s, Read, Tesla, Tesla “, ” William Navarro Jameson, Lane Chaplin, Hanna Ziady, Peter Valdes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, The, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Wednesday, Traders, Blue, Carson Group, Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Motors, Ford, Tesla Locations: New York
The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors
Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, , can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point higher to 4.6862%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 5.0373% after dipping by around one basis point, holding above the 5% mark it crossed Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and monetary policy guidance. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and investors are hoping that officials will provide fresh signals about the potential path ahead for interest rates. Uncertainty has grown in recent weeks about the possibility, number and timing of interest rate cuts this year.
Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal, Fed, Traders Locations: .
Investors can lock in some juicy real yields with Treasury inflation-protected securities, according to UBS. "The result has been rising real yields further out the curve, offering the opportunity to lock in attractive real yields ahead of expected falling nominal yields later this year," she added. Treasury yields are expected to decline when the Federal Reserve starts reducing the fed funds rate. Nominal yields have been rising as the market reassesses those interest rate expectations. "Our expectation of declining nominal yields in the second half of the year will be a tailwind to performance," she said.
Persons: Leslie Falconio Organizations: Treasury, UBS, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department Locations: UBS Americas
In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.
Persons: , it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London
Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sour, with traders pricing in just one or two cuts by December. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move on interest rates. Investors have also dialed back their outlook for rate cuts throughout the year. At Wednesday's meeting, market watchers expect Powell to formally confirm this shift from the FOMC, which had previously forecast three rate cuts this year," Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro said in a note.
Persons: Stocks, , Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, Powell, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Open Markets, Traders
The only reason the Federal Reserve might be tempted to cut rates would be to help the U.S. cover interest payments for the national debt, according to fund manager Freddie Lait. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%. Traders are currently only pricing in about a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut taking place as early as September and expect just one quarter-percentage-point reduction by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The reason they might cut is because the U.S. government can't afford [them not doing] it — and that's a much scarier reason to have to cut," he added. A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve declined to comment.
Persons: Freddie Lait, Lait Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, Traders Locations: U.S
Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."
Persons: Powell, , Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management
The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. "There is clearly a possibility that the sharp and sudden lifts in the JPY were sparked by intervention. Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did in fact occur won't be available until late May. The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement last week. The Fed is expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more yen selling is likely, CBA's Kong said.
Persons: haven't, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, bode, CBA's Kong, pare, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Trading, Markets, Bank of, Fed, Traders, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Asia, Japan, U.S, Bank of England
Gold prices ease as dollar firms ahead of Fed policy meet
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An Argor-Heraeus SA branded two hundred and fifty gram gold bar, center, sits in this arranged photograph at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Gold prices were set for a third straight monthly gain, even as bullion prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting starting later in the day. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,329.69 per ounce, as of 0355 GMT. This week's important market events are the Federal Reserve's policy meeting from April 30-May 1 and the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. The U.S. Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% at this meeting.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Capital.com, Bullion, Capital.com's Rodda, Jerome Powell Organizations: Heraeus SA, Solar, Federal, U.S, Fed Locations: Budapest, Hungary
Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, , Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican
Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we examine how tough the job market is for the well-paid employee . That's the current job trend, as higher-paid employees are having trouble finding work despite a historically strong labor market. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe so-called white-collar recession could also have a lasting impact on the job market for high earners. AdvertisementIt speaks to the broader theme of efficiency Big Tech companies have touted for the better part of a year .
Persons: , Alyssa Powell, Insider's Aki Ito, BI's Emily Stewart, Aki, Rebecca Zisser, Wall, There's, Christine Ji, Kenneth Tan, Alexander Spatari, Abanti Chowdhury, Christine Ji's, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk, Premier Li Qiang, Beijing . Wang Ye, Musk, Li Qiang, Jensen Huang, Douglas Sacha, Getty, Bob Bakish, Shari, David Kohl, Shopify, Changpeng Zhao, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Hamptons, Big Tech, Tech, Amazon, Bank of America, Elon, Premier, AP Elon Musk's, Federal Reserve, Paramount Locations: America, Beijing ., Xinhua, China, New York, London
Washington CNN —Nowadays, it’s anyone’s guess when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year — if at all. Fed officials are meeting this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss rates and set policy. That guidance will be key for market observers who clearly have divergent views on interest rates. Forecasts from major Wall Street banks on the first rate cut are all over the place: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect the first cut in July, while Wells Fargo is betting on September. Some Fed policymakers, meanwhile, have even floated the possibility of a rate hike, instead of a cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell, , ” Kathleen Grace, John Towfighi, That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Read, Cindy Westman, , Brian Fung, Jason Carroll, I’ll, , Westman, , Westman — Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank of America, CNN, Labor Department, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, Program, Social Locations: Washington, Wells, Mexico, , China, United States, Eureka , Illinois
The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."
Persons: Powell, , It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington
Average 30-year mortgage rates continue to hover around 7% after spiking up earlier this month, according to Zillow data. This means we could see mortgage rates improve somewhat as we approach fall. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices.
Persons: decelerating, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
"Stocks with stable growth typically perform best alongside decelerating economic growth." In this economic climate, Goldman is advising clients to buy stocks offering stable growth. The Wall Street bank screened Russell 1000 stocks for those with the most stable growth in earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization on a quarterly basis over the past 10 years. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Goldman said. Industrial companies such as Waste Management and Fastenal also made the list, as well as consumer discretionary names Domino's Pizza and AutoZone .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Fastenal Organizations: Federal Reserve, Russell, PepsiCo, Colgate, Palmolive, Waste Management
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Gold retreats as dampened Fed rate cut hopes dent appeal
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices slipped on Monday as hopes for early interest rate cuts this year dampened, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and U.S. non-farm payrolls data due this week for further clarity on monetary policy. "Short term, gold is facing some challenges given the likely delayed timeline for rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting from April 30-May 1 and the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday are key for markets this week. The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at this meeting.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Jerome Powell, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, KCM Trade, Investors, People's Bank of, Citi Locations: Mendrisio, Switzerland, People's Bank of China
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